The spread of Covid-19 and the subsequent lockdowns in 2020 have significantly changed the way consumers shop around the world. How will food categories in one of the largest and hardest hit markets be affected when vaccines are introduced and restaurants increase capacity?
Data and technology company Numerator has measured the impact that eating more outside the home has on food categories in the United States.
The Grocery Vulnerability Index measures the likelihood that a change in fast food (QSR) spending will correlate with a change in spending on a particular category of food.
Vulnerable categories
Meat, herbs and spices are among the most vulnerable categories according to the index.
Meat is 50% more likely to drop in food sales than the average food category as QSR / restaurants reopen and consumers replace their homemade meals.
Herbs and spices are 46% more likely to drop in sales as more consumers eat out and cook less at home.
Spices (19% rather declining), packaged bakeries (13%) and dairy products (8%) are moderately susceptible. While many dairy products have become indispensable in the refrigerator, both consumption and use in recipes are likely to decline.
Frozen foods and baking / cooking categories are considered the "wait and see" categories.
Frozen foods are currently 2% more likely to decline, but certain categories in frozen foods are more susceptible than others. Baking and cooking is also 2%, but vulnerability could be reduced if baking hobbies picked up during the pandemic become permanent behaviors.
Safe categories
Candy and shelf-stable meals were the two least likely (both -69%) categories to see a decline in sales when restaurants reopen.
Other food categories that are not considered to be prone to higher restaurant spending are breakfast (-56%), canned goods (-37%), products (-33%) and alcohol (-33%).
Understand the changes
Retailers and brands need to understand what the changes will mean for their business as covid restrictions gradually relax and vaccinations become widespread.
“Numerator data helps retailers and brands use advanced analytics to anticipate and predict the impact of emerging behaviors,” said Eric Belcher, CEO of Numerator.
